At the beginning of the year, most analysts predicted a weak global economy this year. However, China's strong recovery has boosted world growth and given the new Brazilian government a shot in the arm. Some banks and consulting firms predict that Brazil's trade surplus will exceed $70 billion in 2023, which is expected to be a record high.

Brazil's Sao Paulo State newspaper reported on June 12 that during Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's first two terms in office (2003-2010), the global economy was in a period of high growth in the first decade of this century. Although the current development situation is far from that state, the resilience of the global economy at the beginning of the year may help Lula's government restore the prosperity of the past.

Julia Passabom, an economist at ItauUnibanco, said that while business investment intentions and consumers' willingness to buy were low at the moment, Brazil's economic data did not show a sharp downward trend, especially in the services sector.

This performance may have been helped by a series of monetary and fiscal measures implemented in Brazil during the pandemic. According to Kaian Oliveira, an economist at Parcitas Investimentos, a Brazilian consulting firm, consumers may have accumulated savings from tax incentives during the pandemic, and the job market is not showing signs of weakness.

On the other hand, in 2023, the global economy is also being driven by strong growth in China, which, as a major importer of Brazilian products such as soybeans and iron ore, has long played an important role in Brazil's foreign trade. While commodity prices have fallen since the peak of the epidemic, Brazil has managed to offset the impact by increasing product sales.

In this regard, Fabio Akira, chief economist at BlueLine Asset, a Brazilian asset management company, believes that Brazil has used its advantages well, with a surge in export supply, which has not only boosted Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP), but also eased inflation.

Brazil's trade surplus has also raised eyebrows around the world in recent weeks. Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), has even suggested that Brazil is becoming "the Switzerland of Latin America." He tweeted: "Unlike other countries in the region, huge trade surpluses are emerging. This will give Brazil stability and a strong currency to cope with the external environment."