In the first half of 2024, the white feather broiler market was affected by its own market downturn, combined with the impact of foreign avian flu epidemics, and the import volume of broiler products in the first half of the year fell by as much as 36.09%. In late July, Newcastle disease broke out in a Brazilian state, and the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture announced the suspension of poultry exports to China. In view of the import volume of Brazilian products for many years to rank first in China's product importers, imported chicken feet and frozen chicken wings accounted for more than 40% of China's total imports, driven by this good news, it is expected that the price of chicken by-products in the short term or stronger operation.
In the first half of 2024, imports of white feather chicken products hit a five-year low
In the first half of 2024, the import volume of broiler products maintained the trend of first increasing and then decreasing, with a total of 451,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.09%. On the supply side, it is mainly affected by overseas avian influenza epidemic, international relations and changes in import channels. On the demand side, it is the impact of domestic terminal demand, price difference of domestic and foreign products and macroeconomic environment. In the first half of 2024, the domestic broiler market is not booming, and the comprehensive price of broiler products is 9.46 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decline of 19.21%. The market demand for domestic products is flat, the price difference between domestic and foreign products is significantly reduced, and the enthusiasm of traders to import is reduced, which is compounded by the production reduction of Brazil, the main foreign importing country, and the import volume reduction of the United States bird flu. Under the effect of both supply and demand, the import volume of products has fallen significantly year-on-year, hitting a record low in the past five years.
In the first half of the year, Brazil's imports of chicken products accounted for more than 57% of the country
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the top three importing countries in the first half of 2024 are Brazil, Thailand and Russia, with imports of 261,500 tons, 56,800 tons and 54,500 tons, respectively. In the country's total imports accounted for 57.86%, 12.57%, 12.05%, in the first half of the year, Thailand jumped to the second largest importer of broiler products, the United States is due to the impact of the avian flu epidemic ranking declined. From the perspective of the main imported products in the first half of the year, frozen chicken feet, frozen chicken wings (excluding wing tips) and frozen chicken pieces with bones ranked the top three, and the imports in the first half of the year were 21,100 tons, 136,300 tons and 45,500 tons, accounting for 46.69%, 30.16% and 10.07% of the total imports, respectively. It can be seen from the above data that the main imported products of white feather broilers in the first half of the year are chicken feet and wings, Brazil as the largest import country of products, the volume and price changes in the local market will directly impact the domestic product market.
f the ban on Brazilian products exported to China is established, it is expected to strongly support chicken by-product prices in the third quarter
According to the data of Brazilian imports in the first half of the year, frozen chicken wings (excluding wing tips), frozen chicken feet and frozen chicken pieces with bones ranked in the top three of Brazil's total imports, imports in the first half of the year were 101,900 tons, 90,300 tons and 38,500 tons, accounting for 22.55%, 19.97% and 8.53% of the country's imports. By comparing with the data of frozen chicken wings (excluding wing tips) and frozen chicken feet imported from Brazil, it can be seen that the proportion of frozen chicken wings (excluding wing tips) imported from Brazil accounted for 74.77% of the country's imported frozen chicken wings (excluding wing tips); Frozen chicken feet were as high as 42.79%.
Affect the domestic product market price, in addition to the domestic market itself supply and demand and cost side, the supply of foreign imported products and product prices, if there is a significant fluctuation, will also affect the domestic product market. Brazil as the most core product import country, its chicken wings, chicken feet supply occupies the leading import total. According to the theoretical calculation of a total of 8.4 billion hair chickens slaughtered in 2023, the average weight of a single broiler is 5.5 kilograms, and according to the calculation of chicken feet and wings, the production of domestic chicken feet and wings is 807,500 tons and 701,300 tons, while in 2023 Brazil imported chicken feet and wings are 356,300 tons and 529,400 tons, respectively. It accounts for 50.38% and 43.98% of the imports of 2023 single products, and the proportion of domestic single products is 22.22% and 33.20% respectively, which can be described as pivotal.
At present, the ban on imports from Brazil to China is still in the 21-day consultation period, and the biggest impact of the incident is that the trade link and corporate sentiment are pulled and expected to be driven. Since the release of the news on July 19 (Friday), the import of claw and fin products at home and abroad has increased significantly, and the cumulative price increase of a single product has exceeded 2000 yuan/ton as of Monday. If the suspension of exports to China is established after the conclusion of the consultation, taking into account the significant decline in foreign supply and the good seasonal demand, it is expected that the price of wing and claw items will continue to strengthen in the long term; In the short cycle, because there is no obvious sign of supply reduction, the superimposed terminal demand is limited and the prosperity of the product is relatively poor, it is expected that the continuous pulling space of the product stage is also limited, and it is recommended that the industry carefully watch the news release of the import event.
